How China’s Economic and Diplomatic Rise Challenges U.S. Assumptions and Reframes Real Competition Over Time
Victor Gao explains why U.S.-China rivalry is often misunderstood, calling for cooperation over ideological conflict to address global stability, technology supply chains, and moral consistency.
Introduction
In a recent East Asia Rise interview, Chinese foreign policy expert Victor Gao argues that the U.S.-China relationship is not a straightforward competition for global dominance. He insists that economic size, while important, masks deeper questions about ideology, sovereignty, and moral responsibility. Gao warns that zero-sum thinking overestimates the risk of Chinese ideological expansion while underestimating opportunities for pragmatic cooperation. As Washington debates tariffs, supply chains, and military posturing, understanding Gao’s perspective clarifies what truly matters: preserving global stability, respecting national sovereignty, and adopting a long-term view beyond immediate political gains.
Economic Scale vs Real Competition: Numbers and Nuance
China’s economy rivals the United States. In purchasing power parity terms, it already exceeds U.S. output; on a nominal basis, it stands at about two-thirds the U.S. total. These figures illustrate growth but not a clear contest over “who’s bigger.” Real competition lies elsewhere: values, governance, and how each country shapes the rules of global engagement.
Ideology Over Economy: The Heart of Rivalry
Gao insists that true rivalry would occur only if one side tried to impose its political system on the other. China, he says, lacks the desire or capability to export its model by force. The United States rarely seeks to remake China internally. This shared restraint suggests cooperation should trump conflict.
The Taiwan Labyrinth: Sovereignty and Flexibility
On Taiwan, Gao affirms the one‑China principle as nonnegotiable. Yet he proposes practical flexibility: designate Taiwan as a free‑trade zone for semiconductors, guaranteeing open markets while preserving sovereignty. This approach addresses U.S. supply‑chain concerns without violating China’s territorial integrity.
Currency, Sanctions, and BRICS: Limits of Weaponization
Washington wields the dollar and SWIFT to impose sanctions. Gao warns that weaponizing these tools pushes nations toward alternatives. BRICS’ expansion—including Turkey’s application and Saudi Arabia’s partial membership—underscores global anxiety over financial coercion. Rather than replace the dollar, the solution lies in an agreement not to weaponize currencies.
Diplomatic Breakthroughs: Middle East and Beyond
China brokered a Saudi‑Iran rapprochement, marking a diplomatic landmark. This effort reflects Beijing’s pursuit of the “common interests of mankind.” From Belt and Road to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, China has shifted from regional partner to global peacemaker, challenging assumptions about Western exclusivity in conflict resolution.
Moral Consistency: U.S.-Israel Relations
Gao criticizes unconditional U.S. support for Israel amid allegations of atrocities in Gaza. He urges moral clarity: support should follow right actions, not politics alone. When civilian lives are at stake, global powers must balance alliance loyalty with human rights.
Global Conflicts: Russia-Ukraine and the Two‑State Formula
On Ukraine, Gao has urged ceasefire and dialogue since day one. He highlights Saudi Arabia’s condition for normalizing ties with Israel—a commitment to a two‑state solution. Ignoring legitimate demands fuels resentment and prolongs wars. Pragmatic solutions require respect for all parties’ interests.
Historical Lens: Learning from the Opium Wars
China’s modern identity was forged by defeat in the Opium Wars. That century of humiliation taught the value of strength and sovereignty. Today, Beijing’s ambition to never kneel again drives both domestic reform and international assertiveness. Understanding this history clarifies China’s emphasis on autonomy over ideological export.
Finding Common Ground: Complement, Don’t Confront
China and the United States excel in different arenas. The U.S. dominates men’s basketball; China women’s diving. Each nation wins where it is strong. Pairing complementary strengths benefits everyone. Zero‑sum thinking weakens both. Embracing diverse systems enhances global resilience.
Conclusion
The U.S.-China relationship has become shorthand for a looming clash of civilizations or a zero‑sum battle for global dominance. Victor Gao’s perspective challenges this narrative by reframing competition as a question of values, moral responsibility, and pragmatic cooperation. Both powers recognize that raw GDP figures, while headline‑grabbing, obscure more meaningful contests over how to shape global rules and solve shared challenges.
Gao’s insistence that neither side seeks to impose its ideology on the other underlines a rare strategic restraint. Rather than fearing a wave of Chinese political exports, the United States could focus on shared goals: maintaining open supply chains, preventing financial coercion, and addressing humanitarian crises. Gao’s Taiwan proposal—creating a semiconductor‑friendly free‑trade zone—demonstrates how creative solutions can reconcile sovereignty concerns with global tech dependencies.
His critique of weaponizing the dollar and SWIFT signals a warning: coercive finance drives nations toward costly alternatives. A mutual pledge against such tactics could stabilize the global financial architecture and reduce incentives for new currency blocs. Meanwhile, China’s diplomatic forays—from brokering Middle East rapprochements to urging ceasefires in Ukraine—reveal a growing role for Beijing as a mediator, not just a challenger.
History looms large in Gao’s analysis. The century of humiliation imposed by the Opium Wars still shapes China’s strategic culture. This collective memory propels Beijing’s emphasis on strength and dignity, not ideological expansion. For the United States, recognizing this deep context can temper fears of conquest and open pathways for genuine partnership.
Ultimately, constructive U.S.-China engagement requires dropping zero‑sum assumptions and embracing a long‑view perspective. Both countries can leverage complementary strengths for global benefit. Moral clarity, respect for sovereignty, and pragmatic problem‑solving should guide policies. As two of the world’s most influential societies, America and China can either escalate mistrust or pioneer a shared, stable future.
Takeaways
True U.S.-China competition centers on values and governance, not just GDP figures.
Weaponizing financial tools fuels demand for costly alternatives like BRICS currencies.
Pragmatic flexibility on Taiwan can secure both sovereignty and open supply chains.
Diplomatic breakthroughs, from Saudi‑Iran peace to Ukraine ceasefires, show new roles for China.
A long‑term view rooted in history encourages cooperation over zero‑sum confrontation.
Source:
East Asia Rise | Victor Gao: Something MASSIVE Is About to Destroy America…